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For mid‑sized manufacturers: Pragmon AI tracks your markets, prices, rules and rivals, and shows what each change does to your profit.

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See what each outside change does to cash profit

Home / Cash profit outlook
October 2026
Cash profit falls 30% by 2027; the carbon charge makes most of the fall
Ardent Extrusions. Data to 30 September 2026.
Cash profit, 2025 to the 2027 base
€ thousand
−1,100
2025
1Carbon charge
2Salaries
3Energy
2027 base−30%
1Carbon charge. Free allowances shrink each year; EU carbon price at €86 a tonne
2Salaries. Up about 5% a year
3Energy. Gas for 2027 delivery at €55 a megawatt hour
Cash profitCost Ardent cannot pass on
What moved
Change on a year
  • Aluminium on the exchange+26%€2,846 a tonne, year to 30 Sep 2026
  • European gas+90%€62 a megawatt hour in August 2026, against August 2025
  • EU carbon border chargeIn forceSince 1 January 2026; EU buyers pay it from 2027
  • Ban on Russian aluminium31 DecThe last exemption ends

Pragmon AI shows the cash profit outlook for a manufacturer: cash profit falls from 3,700 to 2,600 thousand euros by 2027, a fall of 30%. The carbon charge takes 600 thousand euros, salaries 400 thousand and energy 100 thousand.

A real manufacturer, name and figures changed.

What it tracks for your company

Each area priced in profit and sourced.

Metal is up 26% on a year; the margin over metal is down 14%

Change on a year, to 30 Sep 2026
Metal it buysExchange price, €2,846 a tonne
+26%
Its margin over metalSelling price less metal
−14%
Source: London Metal Exchange; Ardent's sales

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